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ChurchillTerry
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Expertise

Forecasting & Cash Flow Planning

Practical rolling forecasts and scenario plans that answer “can we cover payroll?” and show which choices preserve runway.

Overview

Profit is an opinion; cash is a fact. Owner-managed businesses rarely fail because the strategy was wrong — they fail because the money ran out sooner than anyone modelled. ChurchillTerry builds forecasts you can actually run the business on: near-term cash you can see week by week, and a longer plan that shows the financial consequence of the decisions in front of you.

The output is not a spreadsheet you look at once. It is a living model, updated on a set cadence, that answers the questions owners actually ask — can we cover payroll, can we afford this hire, what happens if the big customer pays late.

Money

What we do

13-week cash forecast
A rolling short-term view of receipts, payments and the balance at the end of each week.
Annual plan and budget
An operating plan tied to real capacity and headcount, with monthly targets the team can be held to.
Scenario modelling
Base, upside and downside cases so you can see which choices preserve runway and which spend it.
Driver-based modelling
Forecasts built on the handful of drivers that actually move your business rather than a percentage growth assumption.
Covenant and runway tracking
Early warning on lender covenants, seasonal dips and the point at which capital needs to be in place.
Plan versus actual
A monthly variance review that explains the gap and updates the forecast rather than restating it.

Engagement

Typical engagement models

  • Build the modelA defined project to build the forecast, hand it over and train your team to run it.
  • Retained forecastingWe maintain and update the model each month or week as part of ongoing advisory support.
  • Event-drivenFocused modelling for a raise, a lender conversation, an acquisition or a downturn.

(Engagement scope, hours, and pricing are defined in the Statement of Work.)

Our approach

Our approach — three focused phases

  1. Phase 1

    Establish the baseline

    Confirm the numbers are reliable, understand the cash cycle and identify the true drivers of revenue and cost.

  2. Phase 2

    Model

    Build the short-term cash forecast and the longer operating plan, then test them against the decisions you are weighing.

  3. Phase 3

    Operate and review

    Update on an agreed cadence, review variances with you, and translate what changed into what to do about it.

Fit

Who this is for

  • Owners who find out about a cash squeeze the week it arrives.
  • Companies planning a hire, a location, an acquisition or a raise and wanting the financial consequence first.
  • Businesses with lender covenants, seasonality or long project cycles to manage.

Client Success

Consolidating Financial Reporting to Fund Growth and a New Revenue Line

Operating across two states and pursuing outside capital, 360Tire's owners needed reporting and forward visibility that matched the scale of the business.

Learn more

FAQ

Here’s the Facts

How often should a forecast be updated?
Weekly for the short-term cash view when cash is tight, monthly for the operating plan. We set the cadence to the pressure the business is under.
Can you work with the model we already have?
Usually yes. If it is sound we will tighten and maintain it rather than start again.
Is this useful if we are profitable and comfortable?
Yes. Forecasting is how you decide what to do with the surplus — invest, distribute or hold — instead of finding out after the fact.

Money

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Contact Us

Get the Support You Need

Tell us where your company is in its lifecycle and what’s keeping you up at night. One of us will run point and come back with a clear plan.

I need help with

Confidential. We’ll respond within one business day.

Located in Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

5068 W Plano Pkwy Ste 202
Plano, TX 75068

972-361-0110